Module 5: Red Queens and Increasing Returns

Module 5:  Red Queens and Increasing Returns

When you decided to obtain a DVD for your science fiction assignment in Module 4, where did you go to find a movie based on a Philip K. Dick book? Did you rent or purchase a DVD, or did you view it digitally on your computer using Netflix or a similar vendor of video-on-demand?

In trying to locate a DVD for my science fiction assignment in Module 4, based on Philip K. Dick’s book, I went to www.Amazon.com to purchase one or more of the suggested movies. It was going to take 3-5 business, and I did not have the time because I was preparing myself to attend my third residency. I decided to visit three major retailers: Wal-Mart, Target, and Best Buy. The only store that had at least two was Best Buy. As an educator and a scholar, I wanted to purchase and add these movies to my DVD collection in order to use for future learning and teaching. The DVD movies: Total Recall produced in 1990 and Next, produced in 2007 would not play in my laptop computer purchased in 2006 for $2,500.00. When I got home the following week, I immediately tried both videos in my desktop computer DVD drive which I purchased in 2010 for $1,500.00. Unfortunately, I was only able to access the movie Next. The journey of obtaining a DVD for our science fiction assignment showed how technologies advance over times such as my laptop and desktop computers. Thornburg (2009) concluded that Moore Law is prevalent today because a trend in technologies in which the power of a technology doubles about every 12 months and becomes less expensive to purchase.

Between my job and taking courses at Walden University, I have not used Netflix or video-on-demand services for viewing movies. I only view movies for educational purposes from the library or ask a friend to borrow his/her copy.

Is the current competition between DVDs and video-on-demand an example of increasing returns or Red Queens? Justify your response with sound reasoning and specific examples.

Thornburg (2009) described increasing returns as, two innovations hitting the market at about the same time and by chance one technology gets locked in, and the other technology becomes extinct. He stressed that possibly that one captured people imagination more than the other and that the best technology does not always wins. Arthur (1996) argued that increasing returns are the tendency for that which is ahead to get further ahead, for that which loses advantage to lose further advantage.  For example, Thornburg cited Arthur’s video tape recording between Panasonic format (VHS) and Sony format (Betamax). Although Sony’s Betamax format was high image quality, and superior to Panasonic suboptical formal (VHS), Panasonic was able to cut a deal with film producers in converting to their format. This resulted in Sony not having the media impact and was force out of the market by Panasonic.

Thornburg (2009) defined Red Queens as huge competition between two strong technologies in the process and all other competitors are left behind these two technologies. Thornburg mentioned that Lewis Carol reviewed the Red Queens as Alice in Wonderland who has looked through the glass and ran as fast as she can. Thornburg stressed that Red Queens are a competitive force that drives emerging technologies. For instance, Thornburg mentioned that Netscape Navigator and Microsoft Internet Explorer browsers, both were available at the same time. Each browser was free to use for the Internet. Netscape and Microsoft were trying to stay a step ahead of each other in order to dominate the market and market shares. The constant battles and conflicts between these two browsers caused other competitors to fall behind. Another example that Thornburg discussed was Microsoft platform verses Apple platform. He revealed that Steve Jobs stated “a BMW does not sell as well as a Chevrolet. I do not care. I want a BMW.” Despite the fact that BMW is of a higher quality than the Chevrolet, Thornburg argued there is still a market for Apple, and Microsoft platform and the two will continue to have battles and conflicts among each other.

Illustration by John Tenniel of the Red Queen lecturing Alice for Lewis Carroll's "Through The Looking Glass."

Based on my analysis and examples of increasing returns and Red Queens, the current competition between DVDs and video-on-demands are examples of increasing returns and Red Queens.

Where do you think DVDs and video-on-demand are on the four criteria of McLuhan’s tetrad?

I think that DVDs and video-on-demand are both rotating through each quadrant of McLuhan’s Laws of Media and battling out their conflicts in order to stay on top of the market. For example, Netflix allows you to select a movie anytime and anyplace. The new movies are available quickly than DVDs. I think that it really depends on what people want at a particular time. Heymann (2011) stressed that the SNL Kagan study, the Economics of TV and Film revealed that consumers are now opting to sign up for streaming and/or rental services, like Netflix. They are using video on demand (VOD) services more and more, as they discover these services can be cost effective.

Unfortunately for studios, according to SNL Kagan, the revenue from VOD has not yet offset the resulting drop in DVD sale revenue, which was their top earner for more than a decade now.

Heymann (2011) revealed “SNL Kagan tracked 415 titles in our database that were released on DVD in 2010, and among those titles wholesale revenue dropped by 43.9% from $7.97 billion in 2009 to $4.47 billion in 2010,” said a spokesperson. “It is important to note that this does not include Blu-ray revenue, which grew significantly in 2010. It should also be noted that this sample of the video market does not include library titles, direct-to-video titles and TV on DVD, as well. When looking at the video retail market as a whole, consumer spending only declined 10.8% to $11.86 billion in 2010.”

Heymann (2011) indicated Fox claimed victory once again in 2010 in terms of market share, thanks primarily to Avatar. The distributor had 15 titles in the study, and those titles took in $605.9 million from 30.1 million DVDs shipped.



Number one DVD in 2010, shipping over 10.3 million units and making $207.5 million in revenue.

References

Arthur, W. B.  (1996).  Increasing returns and the new world of business.  Harvard Business Review, 74(4), 100−109. http://web.ebscohost.com.ezp.waldenulibrary.org/ehost/resultsadvanced?sid=465bbda8-6e62-40c4-8075-1fc8504c8516%40sessionmgr104&vid=2&hid=112&bquery=Increasing+returns+AND+the+new+world+%22of%22+business&bdata=JmRiPWJ0aCZjbGkwPUZUJmNsdjA9WSZ0eXBlPTEmc2l0ZT1laG9zdC1saXZlJnNjb3BlPXNpdGU%3d

Heymann, G. (2011).  Will video on demand services like Netflix make DVDs a thing of the past?

http://technology-headlines.com/2011/05/26/will-video-on-demand-services-like-netflix-make-dvds-a-thing-of-the-past/

http://www.fromoldbooks.org/LewisCaroll-AliceThroughTheLookingGlass/pages/036-red-queen-chastises-alice/547x680-q75.html

Laureate Education, Inc. (Executive Producer). (2009). Evolutionary technologies. Baltimore: Author.

https://class.waldenu.edu/webapps/portal/frameset.jsp?tab_tab_group_id=_2_1&url=%2Fwebapps%2Fblackboard%2Fexecute%2Flauncher%3Ftype%3DCourse%26id%3D_967488_1%26url%3D

Laureate Education, Inc.  (Executive Producer).  (2009).  Increasing returns.  [DVD].  In emerging and future technology.  Baltimore:  Author.

Laureate Education, Inc.  (Executive Producer).  (2009).  Red Queens.  [DVD].  In emerging and future technology.  Baltimore:  Author.

Michele

Module 5:  Red Queens and Increasing Returns

I responded to the following community members:

Timothy Weaver

http://weave1-weave1.blogspot.com

Kevin Klein

http://kklein66.wordpress.com/

Michele

Module 4: The Disruptive Power of Second Life

Module 4:  The Disruptive Power of Second Life

In the DVD entitled, “Emerging and Future Technology,” Thornburg (2009) described disruptive technology as one of the six forces that drive emerging technologies.  Thornburg argued that the term disruptive technology is associated with Clayton Christianson, a University Professor at Harvard.  He mentioned that Clayton Christianson has thought about disruptive technology and how it has evolved and developed over time.  Thornburg defined disruptive technology as a new technology with the same functionality of an existing technology.  This new technology functions more efficiently at a lower cost and then obsoletes that existing technology.  For example, individuals performing in live bands at a hotel.  These people believed that they had job security for a lifetime.  A disruptive technology such as CDs and the Internet which is audio technology replaces the live bands.  Thornburg concluded that the disruptive technology takes place in McLuhan’s second quad which involves obsoleting of an existing technology.     

How is Second Life a disruptive technology?

Second Life is a disruptive technology because it changes the way we socialize and interact on the Internet.  According to Rosedale (2008) in his video entitled, “Second Life,” that Second Life is a 3D world where everyone you see is a real person and each place you visit is built by people like you. Rosedale stressed that you enter a world with infinite possibilities and live a life without boundaries, guided only by your imagination.  He concluded that Second Life is a virtual world where people share a connection to space, recreate the world, and get inside the computer and make things.   

What technology or innovation did it displace?

The innovations that Second Life displaces are social interaction networking sites such as Facebook, LinkedIn.  Other technologies that Second Life disrupts are:  wikis and blogs, which cover the collaboration, sharing of ideas, and discussions.

How many years do you think Second Life has left before another emerging technology or disruptive technology replaces it?

I am uncertain about the amount of time that Second Life has before a new or disruptive technology replaces it.  Rosedale (2008) stressed that the next decade will encompasses a virtual world because this is the most common place where human beings come together in order to consume information.  He argued that it may be Second Life, something larger than Second Life, decedents of Second Life and that the Internet will become a valuable tool for Second Life. 

What are the social benefits of Second Life, and what might be the social implications of virtual worlds in your industry?

The social benefits of Second Life are that it allows people to build on their creativity, 3D life environment, and a “melting pot” for cultures and diversities.  In education, the social implication is that the Second Life platform allows students to interact socially and bring their real life skills and experiences into reality.  Second Life will also provide students with real world situations in various subjects in order to challenge and enhance their critical thinking and writing skills.  Teachers and other educators will benefit by holding professional development sessions in this virtual world and for the development of curricula. 

A short video entitled, "Living the "Second' Life CBS News Video, can be access at:
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=2496361n.  The video is dated January 1, 2008.  NOTE:  This video was not available for embedment. 

References

Laureate Education, Inc.  (Executive Producer).  (2009).  Disruptive technologies.  [DVD].  In emerging and future technology.  Baltimore:  Author.

Rosedale, P.  (2008).  Phillip Rosedale on Second Life. 
http://www.ted.com/talks/the_inspiration_of_second_life.html


Michele


Module 4:  The Disruptive Power of Second Life

I responded to the following community members:

Timothy Weaverhttp://weave1-weave1.blogspot.com

Kevin Klein

http://kklein66.wordpress.com/

Module 3: Rhymes of History Technology

Module 3:  Rhymes of History Technology

 Dr. Thornburg (2009) discussed in his video entitled: “Rhymes of History,” that social networking tools rekindles things from the past. For example, he indicated that many young people expose themselves to MySpace and Facebook for new ideas/sources and to chat with their peers. Thornburg revealed that these social networking tools rekindle watering hole gatherings from the past. This meant that back-in-the –day, people would gather as one by traveling rather than coming together as one using social networking tools as a means of communication.

Another example that Dr. Thornburg (2009) addressed in his video was that a laptop technology rekindles runners from ancient times who carried messages from village to another village. He stressed that, during ancient times, villages would also use drums as another communication tool from village to village. Thornburg concluded that the impact of a new development rekindled something from the distant past which is McLuhan’s Laws of Media representing the third quadrant.

An example of a technology that represents a rhyme of history is the Army Logistician magazine which is currently called the Army Sustainment (See below).  Paparone (2009) discussed the last four decades of the Army Logistician magazine. He revealed that when looking at this magazine electronically, on can gain important insights regarding the history of military logistics from 1969 to 2009. The author quoted “no history of modern military logistics published in any other form can compete with the collection of account published in Army Logistician. All of the past issues of Army Logistician is available on line.

 

 

 

The first issue of Army Logistician,                             VS                          Army Sustainment, Introducing                    

September-October 1969, was                                                                     Bulletin for Sustainers,

published during the height of the                                                              Commemorating 40 Years of 

Vietnam War.                                                                                               Amy Logistician.

                                                                                                                        Link:  www.ALMC.MIL/ALOG

Paparone (2009) emphasized that the January-February 1999 issue was the longest issue of Army Logistician at 164 pages. This was the magazine’s 30th anniversary which included 43 articles on   various aspects of the Revolution in Military Logistics. In the July-August 2007 issue, the Logistics Branch was created. This was a significant step in the Army’s decades-long evolution form stovepiped support to multifunctional logistics.

Paparone (2009) stressed that after reading his article, “Army Logistician and the Rhymes of History,” that an individual will be able to identify three main themes of recent military logistics history which are technology, efficiency, and temporality. He believed that Mark Twain quote: “History doesn’t repeat itself,--at best it sometimes rhymes,” appears to be true about the military logistics endeavors. Paparone concluded that Army Logistician has become an institutional source of military logistics “poetry” (p. 33).

Kelly (2007) addressed in his speech, which “The Next 5,000 Days of the Web,” that computers, handheld devices, cellphones, laptops, and servers will all be connected to one global machine. He revealed that there are three consequences to this one machine which are embodiment, restructuring, and codependency. For example, if you access a social networking site such as Facebook, you login. You must state who you are, and it is unnecessary for you to do that every time you access your Facebook webpage. Kelly argued that instead, all networks should know the data and have it. Kelly rekindled how things were in the past such as regulations, sales, schools, etc. Although we are moving forward in this technological society, we remain the same. He believed that we are the web now and that we are not going to be the web. Kelly emphasized that we should be something different, extremely smart, personal and ubiquitous. He summarized by stating the following:

             There is only one machine.
             The web is its operating system (OS).
             All screens look into the web.
             No bits will live outside the web.
             To share is to gain.
             Let the One read it.
            The One is Us.

References

Kelly, K.  (2007).  The next 5,000 days of the web. 
http://www.ted.com/talks/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html

Laureate Education, Inc. (Executive Producer). (2009). McLuhan’s tetrad concept. Baltimore: Author.

Laureate Education, Inc.  (Executive Producer).  (2009).  Rhymes of history.  Baltimore:  Author.

Paparone, C. R.  (September-October 2009).  Army Logistician and the rhymes of history.  Army Sustainment, 41(5), pp. 30-33.  

http://www.almc.army.mil/alog/issues/SepOct09/rhymes_history.html

Michele

Module 3:  Rhymes of History Technology

I responded to the following community members:

Timothy Weaver

http://weave1-weave1.blogspot.com

Kevin Klein

http://kklein66.wordpress.com/




             

Module 2: Emerging Technologies Tetrad

Module 2 - Blog Post Discussion

McLuhan’s Laws of Media

Television

Enhances	Obsoletes
The dominant form of communication technology.  The prime mass communication around the world.	Telegraph that provided instant communication over massive distances. Telegraph usage faded as radio became easy to use and popularized. The radio allowed listeners to enjoy hearing their favorite music, and variety programs. Radio was a lifeline of information for the masses in the years of World War II. Broadcasts of major sports events became popular as the radio emerged and remote broadcasts became possible. As the radio was becoming perfected, the telephone rapidly became the fastest way to communicate from person-to-person. Filming – with/without sounds
Retrieves/Rekindles	Reverses
Pony express for communication and sending messages over massive distances. Telegraph for sending electric signals across wires. Wood and Wylie (1977) stressed that the radio played an integral part in American universities’ mission which meant bringing educational opportunities to audiences beyond their campus (p. 8). According to Elon University and Pew Internet Project (n.d.) television impacted the following: ·         Lead to additional advances in networked communications ·         Language patterns and introduce new words ·         Lead to advanced form of the transmission of intelligence	Internet – In 1969, Advanced Projects Research Agency Network (ARPANET) became the first group of networked computers and the start of the Internet (Elon University and Pew Internet, n.d.). Internet – emails and the transfer of files Videos, DVDs, vodcasts, podcasts, and teleconferencing. Handheld iphones or smartphones. Hi-definition television.

According to Saettler (2004) the armed forces were the first to experiment with television as an instructional medium. The rationale was that it required the armed forces to meet the mass instruction requirements which were requested by military training. Saettler revealed that in 1956, in Hagerstown, Washington County, Maryland experimented with the use of the closed-circuit television for instruction. In the summer of 1956, approximately one hundred teachers and administration gathered at a workshop in order to plan the new instructional television program (p. 425). The results of the study indicated that television produced substantial increases in achievement. The Washington County’s project staff concluded that the television had educational value for the following reasons:

1.      It focused attention on problems in a way never before possible.

      2.      It stimulated teamwork and planning.

      3.      It created interest in curriculum development and teaching procedures.

4.      It required pupils to assume more responsibility.      

5.      Parents took a greater interest than formerly in the school program and in the progress of their children (p. 426). 

     
The million dollar question is:  will the Internet coupled with digital technologies replace the television?  In our society, we have witnessed many revolutionary changes in communications technology.  In using the McLuhan’s tetrad, the telegram and telephone has allowed us to communicate over distance.  The broadcasting of television and radio has reversed our world into a global village which meant that each technology has transformed society in expected ways.

In this 21st century, the newest communications revolution is based on digital technologies. Contrast to the telephone, digital technologies can allow any person to make available information to everyone anytime and anyplace and allow an individual to conduct a one-to-one conversation. Digital technologies can provide an unlimited number of voices compared to limited voices in radio or television. The answer to our million dollar question is that Coyle (1997) argued that television and traditional media will not be eclipsed by the Internet, but they will have to share that space known today as cyberspace with a new and diverse group of communicators.

The Future of Television: Sweeping Change at Breakneck Speed

In (2011), Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG) interviewed 50 or more television experts that included producers, engineers, and scholars. The purpose of the interview was to create a video/picture of the future television landscape. The results of these interviews allowed Cisco IBSG to develop 10 predictions for the future of television. In order to learn more about the predictions, please view: http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ac79/10-Reasons

References

Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group (2011).  The future of television:  Sweeping change at breakneck speed.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRsAnaBG3No&feature=related

Coyle, K.  (1997). Will the net replace television?  http://ww.kcoyle.net/untele.html

Elon University/Pew Internet Project (n.d.).  Imagining the Internet:  A history and forecast:  Back 150 timeline.  http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/predictions/back150years.pdf

Laureate Education, Inc. (Executive Producer). (2009). McLuhan’s tetrad concept. Baltimore: Author.

Saettler, P.  (2004).  The evolution of American educational technology.  Information Age. 

Michele

Module 2:  Emerging Technologies Tetrad

I responded to the following community members:

Timothy Weaver

http://weave1-weave1.blogspot.com/

Kevin Klein

http://kklein66.wordpress.com/

Brandi Renfro

http://ballinteach44-atl.blogspot.com/

Module 1: Identify an Emerged Technology

Module 1 – Blog Post Discussion

Identify a current technology that has emerged in the last few years that shapes learning or productivity in your industry.

A current technology that has emerged in the last few years that helps to shape learning in education is the Amazon Kindle DX. This emerged technology is designed to make reading magazines and textbooks easy for students to read. The Horizon Report (2010) cited that an advantage for students is to have a single handheld reading device that can easily accommodate the entirety of reading involved in one’s study coupled with referencing texts (p. 18). Thornburg (2009) emphasized that a successful technology adoption comes from individuals aware of the options and knowing enough to form an opinion based on personal experiences.

What problems or challenges have been associated with this technology?
The Kindle DX is very expensive at the price of $379.00. It might be difficult and not as effective to use because like the iphone, ipad or a tablet, they have a touch screen; whereas the Kindle DX does not have a touch screen. Although it is not a serious problem, at times, it is difficult to thumb-type on the tiny-buttoned keyboard.

What social need does it meet, and what are its benefits?
The social need that the Kindle DX met was that it allowed students to use a textbook in an entirely different way from the regular hardcover textbook. For example, students can highlight, post notes, save the information as a text file, and then download to their computer. Assessment exams are a major issue in our system; therefore, students can focus primarily on their reading without surfing the Internet for pictures, images, games, and other distractions.

What would make this technology even better, avoiding the pitfalls you identified?
It needs to be more appealing and user friendly. Although it has 4GB of memory which stores about 3,500 books, it could be condense to a smaller size, some color added to its display screen, and purchased at a less expensive price.  Thornburg (2012) stressed that the use of technology in a classroom setting, will provide students with the opportunity to begin to know the value of what they are learning. He argued that students will think about a topic in a different way and learn to achieve educational goals in a powerful new way.

Link to the website:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B002GYWHSQ/ref=famstripe_kkdx

References

George Lucas Foundation (Edutopia).  2012.  [Video].  David Thornburg on the evolving classroom:  Big thinkers series.  http://www.edutopia.org/david-thornburg-future-classroom-video

Laureate Education, Inc.  (Executive Producer).  (2009).  What is emerging technology?  Baltimore, MD:  Author. 

The Horizon Report. (2010).  A collaboration between the New Media Consortium and the Educause Learning Initiative. 

http://search.comcast.net/?cat=web&con=homepage&q=The+horizon+report+2010

Michele

Module 1:  Identify an Emerged Technology

I responded to the following community members:


Kevin Klein

http://kklein66.wordpress.com/

Cecil Mittoo

http://mittootech1.blogspot.com/